什么是区分人才的唯一指标-ESG跨境

Bill Gurley的博客分享的很多思考是理论层次的。博客名字取得很好，叫万人之上（“Above the Crowd“）。

诚然，文章有高下：万人喃喃不如哲人一语。

每篇文章大抵分为这五个价值层次：

情绪（无价值）

信息（囿于时效）

情报（时效 + 保密性）

知识（止于实用）

智慧（“道”）

笔者认为，当代中国投资人里谈吐间智慧密度最高的非段永平莫属；而近日听的一期播客，终于在美国人里找到了棋逢对手的Jim O'Shaughnessy（后文简称Jim）；短短一个小时，居然满是金句，颇为震撼。

Jim其人，价值投资35年，创办三家投资公司，OSAM资产管理规模60亿美金，虽然不是巨富，但言语中充满了哲理和开悟。Jim祖父I.A. O'Shaughnessy曾是美国最有钱的亿万富豪，却在临死前散尽家财。

本文试着摘录一些思想，目录如下：

1.

一个反直觉的理论

：穿越周期

2.

投资的天启四骑士

a. 可能性和或然性

b. 蛇和回撤

c. 画鬼容易画人难

3.

区分人才的唯一指标

：延迟满足感

4.

家族财富的智慧

-- 乐善好施，以产遗

子孙，不如以德遗子孙

一个反直觉的理论：

穿越周期

无论如何换起止日期，在历史上任意的20年里，美股指数的绝对回报（刨除通胀），全部是正的。

听到这句话的时候，笔者有点不敢相信自己的耳朵：这不就是“美股永远涨”吗?？

也就是说，不管你的时机有多差，从最高点买入，最低点卖出，只要是等了20年的，全都是赚的？怎么可能？

想象一下你的卖出日期是1941年12月，经历了大萧条、一次世界大战，日本在月初刚刚轰炸珍珠港，摧毁了太平洋舰队的主力...

即使在这个历史最差的卖出时机清仓，你的年化收益也有3.8%！

而如果你坐稳扶好，在最低点没卖，五年后随着诺曼底登陆和马歇尔计划，就会坐收额外的+136.8%的收益。

历史上第二差的清仓时机是2009年2月：08年金融海啸的谷底。如果你没有扛过黎明前的黑暗，非要在最低点卖出，年化收益也有3.86%。

Let’s put this into perspective. The 40 years ending in 1941 included the stock market panic of 1907, which drove down the Dow Jones Industrial Average nearly 38 percent; the World War I Era, where the period between 1910 and 1919 was one of the worst ever for stocks; AND, oh yes, the Great Depression. Finally, icing on the 40-year cake, the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941. How could these last 40 years even begin to match that? Alas, they did.

If you look at all rolling 20 year periods real returns so inflation taken out there's never been a 20 year rolling period where the market in the US at least was negative. Now it has been negative in other markets. But in the United States, given the size of our economy. Given the size of our stock market. It's never been negative or a 20 year period now does that mean it will never will be no course not, some. Horrific horrible thing could happen and it could lead to a 20 year negative number. In fact, it got close for the 20 years, ending 08 but again probabilities if you can think probabilistically. And tone down and control your emotions what's going to happen is that overtime directionally. These models are going to continue to work and you know to try to be very specific and say, Yes, it will compound at 13.23 percent.

2009年三月，Jim发表了一篇短小精悍的檄文：一代人一遇的时机（“A Generational Opportunity ”），文章激起无数争议、从者寥寥。十三年后的今天回看，字字珠玑，只有智慧而没有无效的情绪，甚至于当年的论点延伸至今都能牢牢立住。发文时间正是市场最低点，如果当时入市，回报惊人。

主持人问Jim，你当年是如何做出正确判断的呢？Jim笑答：看那数据，像是在向我们尖叫啊！（“The data was screaming at us!”）

天启四骑士：Fear, Greed, Hope and Ignorance

投资的四个敌人：恐惧、贪婪、渴望和无知。

听Jim O'Shaughnessy讲他2009年5月去和华尔街上合作多年的LP见面，对方指着他的公文包说：“我了解你，你包里肯定装了很多数据、表格、ppt，来说服我现在是买入的好时机 —— 我不听不听！贝尔·斯登120年老店都能倒闭、美林这么大的盘子都能倒，美国肯定要崩溃了，我啥也不买！”

可能情形和或然性 Possibility and Probability

Jim当时在最低点抄底，十年后回首，说老伙计LP没有分清“可能性”和“或然性”的区别。美国金融彻底崩溃？这当然是一个可能情形（possibility），但是由于有美联储兜底，发生的概率足够低，所以其实没有或然性（probability）。

什么是或然性？

Jim口中的或然性，主要指的是通过数学期望来理性的指导行为。如果关注可能情形（possibility）那么出门可能被雷劈，但是如果关注或然性（probability），我们的决策应该是每天照常出门的。

行为经济学里说，人性在概率面前是不理性的，总会过度关注极端的可能性/可能情形，而无法真正的理解概率和数学期望。

Richard Thaler（理查德·塞勒 - 2017年诺贝尔经济学奖得主）的理论是，人们在接近于0的数字面前，理解力会有巨大偏差：比如，坐飞机失事的概率二十万分之一和二百万分之一的区别是多大？多数人要么聚焦于存在失事的可能性而不坐飞机，要么直接选择忽略，也就是说由于数字足够小，就把这个概率等同于0。

类似的，如果丢了10块钱，人们感到的沮丧，并不是损失10000块钱的难受程度的千分之一；做一个上下几万元的决策，所花的时间也并不是一个上下20元的决策的一千倍 —— 看看女同胞们在淘宝上花多少时间比价就知道啦。（男女的情绪偏差在文末论文中有提及，女性可能更适合长线投资。）

蛇和回撤

Jim经常问客户，你最大能接受投资账户多少比例的回撤？如果跌了25%你会坚持穿越周期吗？

在人多的会议室里，男客户多数时候都会回答，“肯定能坚持“！

然而搞了35年投资，他发现事到临头，满不是这么回事。回撤到来的时候，恐惧、贪婪、渴望和无知：投资末日的天启四骑士会一并冲将上来。

后来他们做了个小实验：

在大会议室里问男客户，“你怕蛇吗？”

男人很多都会回答：“我不怕蛇！”

答不怕的，立刻把一条塑料蛇甩到桌面上，客户一个个吓得跳起来 —— 中国古话讲叶公好龙，诚不我欺啊。

画鬼容易画人难

如果理解了文章开头那个反直觉的理论，就会明白，价值投资的本质是穿越周期。理解并能防备最差的“可能情形”，但是按照“或然性”来行事，才是理性的。

主持人问Jim，你觉得今年年底美股会涨还是跌？

Jim回答：“我们又回到了恐惧、贪婪和渴望这个主题。我无法回答你 今天 或 今年 股票涨还是跌，老实说我一窍不通。但是随着时间线越拉越长，我会越来越有判断。

如果你问我10年或15年的涨跌，我会从有些悲观的态度，变成极度乐观。（笔者按：画鬼容易画人难）

我甚至于不会尝试去抓最佳时机（“Time the market”）。

我认为马斯克也并不去尝试在最好的时间点去创业和交易。

看足够久的长线，美股涨，是一个或然性。

举个例子：如果你养狗，你每周去超市买狗粮，一袋10美金。突然有一天，狗粮打折，变成一袋5美金了，你会怎么做？当然是多买些，买他个四五袋囤货啊！

只有股票市场里，人们会在价格跌的时候，反而不买了。”（笔者按：这一段和段永平说的“越跌越买”是一回事。）

Now we're back to fear greed and hope. And we're back to arbitraging human nature because look, I don't know what the markets are going to close today? I have no idea, zero. What at the end of this year the market will be. But as we extend our time frames, my ideas get stronger and stronger when you start asking me about 10 years 15 years, I go from being pretty bearish to being very bullish. But the default is if you could successfully time markets you would be the richest person on this planet.  And Elon Musk, I don't think he tries to time markets. Now people who don't like him might say he did that with those coins. But the fact is those are temporary dislocations. If you will, I am much more interested in the directional movement of various asset classes and in the case of US stocks. I think directionally they're heading up. That does not mean that we might not have a wicked wicked bear market. And if the Fed decides to raise interest rates. That means that we could have a significant recession.

The challenge with all of this is let's say somebody's listening to our podcast right and they've read my book or whatever and they think that I know a lot about the market. And so they say to their significant other, you know, I just heard geodesy who's like totally always bullish on the market. He said he was worried about the market here. Let's wait. The problem is waiting until the water clears —— the water never clears. And so the default assumption that I urge all investors to do is consistently put money into the market.

It's really, really simple.

If let's say you have a dog right and you buy a weeks worth of his food. Every week at the supermarket and let's say it cost you $10 and you have enough cans to feed your dog for the next week. If you walked into the supermarket and you saw that they were having a special on the dog food and it was only $5 to buy all the cans. Do you run home and return those files in those cans of dog food of course not! You bulk up on it, you might even buy 4 weeks or 5 weeks! Only in the stock market, it seems to me, people rush to sell when the price drops.

区分人才的唯一指标：

延迟满足感

谈到如何识别人才，Jim认为单一最重要的指标，就是延迟满足感。

“一个人智力如果达到优秀水平（120以上），140 IQ 和 120 IQ，对两个人的未来成就来说是没有区别的。

如果有十个年轻人，我来投资他们其中一人，用未来他/她的终生收入作为回报的话，那么我会投那个最有延迟满足感的人。因为唯一能预测一个年轻人未来能否成事的，是延迟满足感（Delayed Gratification），或者说耐心。

PPP理论，耐心、坚持 加 方法论（Patience Persistence Process）。我会挑选三个P最出众的年轻人。”

说实话，笔者觉得Patience Persistence Process，几乎就是一回事儿啊。

王兴说的长期有耐心、每天前进三十公里，张一鸣讲的延迟满足感，左晖说的做难而正确的事情。成功之道，往往就是如此朴实。

“不论你是高价买优质公司、捡烟蒂还是非共识投资，找到适合你的策略，然后就静待其成吧。让它自然发生。老实说，成功的投资，应该和看着墙上的油漆渐渐风干一样，慢、平平无奇、毫不激动人心。”

So yeah, there is and the data specifically is around the ability to delay gratification right and there's a study which is under some scrutiny because it apparently is not replicated. But everyone is familiar with it right and it's the one where the little kids put in the room with 2 marshmallows and I can't remember the exact way they do the study. But if he only or she only eats one they'll give him like several more. But if he or she eats 2, they don't give him anymore than it is. Basically, a proxy for that individual's ability to delay gratification and that is a really interesting marker for human beings, those who can delay gratification. Those who have patience and those who persist all of the studies that I've seen or we've conducted actually show that like raw intelligence. it's great to have, but if you took somebody who had an IQ of 100. Whatever gifted is 140 or or thereabouts and then contrasted them with somebody who has a 120 IQ, which is typically the IQ you need to get into legal or medical school. You can't make any prediction based on those 2 numbers.

This guy could be a nervous Nellie and like just flip out whenever because he's so smart, he could think of all the really out there scenario. It's about what could go wrong and this guy is just persistent.

So if I were like if you said Jim you've got to invest in the careers of these 10 young people who have distinguished themselves in investing what I would look for is persistence and patience, and the ability to follow a process. PPP patience process persistence if you persistently use a well supported by empirical evidence process. You will be rewarded will it work for you always of course not during the Times that it's not working for you, you will be ridiculed you will be called names. People make fun of you and that's just part of the drill here. As you decide you want to be Google and be the King of indexing which is by the way totally acceptable choice for many investors. In fact, I would say the preferable choice. If you are just not like us and stock market junkie. But you just know you want to save and send your kids to middle schools and have some money in retirement. That's a perfectly acceptable way to invest money.

But the idea of those 3Ps persistence process patience. Those are going to be the winners and by the way. The Warren Buffett of 2039 or 2040 is going to get there in a much, much different way than are Warren Buffett got there. He took advantage of the conditions if you will. On the ground this gets back to kind of this idea of saturated intuition, but then he grew. He used to invest like his Idol an teacher Ben Graham, who wrote the securities analysis and the intelligent investor and that was called the margin of safety and buy cigar butts and etc etc. Like super cheap's companies and then selling them when they reach when you think there were an yeah. That's 1 way to do it. None of our value stuff does that particular methodology if you do get a serendipitous. Amount of those companies, yeah, I'd say scoop him up.

But So what profit did was decide no no. I'm gonna devolve myself and he didn't and so don't sanctify any belief right because the sacred. Is unquestionable and it becomes doctrine and every time if you study history and you look at ideas. You look at institutions. You look at all of these things when you make something sacred and. If you question it your heretic or apostate very bad. Things happen learn from everyone study. Buffets study gram and duck study the momentum guides study everything that you think there is a reasonable hypothesis. Underneath for that particular school of investing you'll probably end up with a hybrid but.

It's fine, I used to. I was much more of a proselytizer. When I was young. In terms of you've got to do it this way. This is the only way right and then I realized I was young and foolish and there's a lot of different ways, the key thing. Is you've got to find something that's right for trick right and that could be very different than what's right for Jim one of the biggest mistakes I ever made? Was designing my own strategies to round one. Nation one for me, I have a really high risk tolerance and it was pointed out to me that Jim. These are like really crazy good, but when they're not working there crazy bad. And so we evolved that as well. But the point is you've got to find what's right for you and then just let it happen. Let it work. It sounded boring. I mean, successful investing, honestly, should be about as exciting as watching paint dry.

家族财富的智慧

Jim的祖父 I.A. O'Shaughnessy 是美国富可敌国的石油商人，曾经有肯尼迪家族的十倍身家，但是在去世前陆陆续续把自己95%的财富都捐献掉了。圣母大学和圣托马斯大学等都是因为他的捐赠而兴盛的。

去世的时候，乡里乡亲都到场，即使衣衫褴褛的乞丐都去亲吻 I.A. 的额头。

到了Jim这一代，称得上是又一次白手起家干到亿万富翁。

可能有人要问，这一切是为了什么呢？从财富积累的角度，如果祖父没有散尽家财，Jim也不用一辈子辛苦再重新赚钱了呀，图个啥呀？

之前读人类简史，尤里·赫拉利有个理论说，不是人类驯服了小麦，而是小麦驯服了人类：小麦一身娇气，要长在松软泥土里，灿烂阳光下，并且怕旱怕虫，所以人类就给小麦松土施肥烧水捉虫，并且开始了定居生活，人类也因为长期的劳作得了一些诸如腰间盘突出的疾病...

当今社会何不如此呢？不是我们赚得了财富，而是资本奴役了我们啊！看看美剧《继承之战》，富二代、富三代的日子，是多么的被资本所异化，亲情友情全都被撕扯的不成样子。

成吉思汗统有四海，几个儿子分封天下各国，然而不过几十年内，钦察汗国、察合台汗国、窝阔台汗国、伊尔汗国相互攻杀。拖雷系的元朝、伊尔汗国联手，对付钦察汗国、窝阔台汗国，西域、漠北地区烽火连天。

过多的财富和权力的传承，与其说是祝福，其实多半是诅咒吧。

乐善好施

以产遗子孙，不如以德遗子孙

Jim祖父的智慧，颇有苏州贝氏耕读世家之风。

孟子曰：“君子之泽，五世而斩。”

贝聿铭是苏州贝氏的富十五代，祖上富有苏州狮子林，明清皇帝下江南都来他家后花园住。

贝氏一族经历了数个大时代的浪涛和风雨，不仅屹立不倒，反而历经15代蒸蒸日上。

其中最关键的便是贝氏祖训：

以产遗子孙，不如以德遗子孙；

以独有之产遗子孙，不如以公有之产遗子孙。

毕竟四世三公不常有，耕读不辍方能传世。

1877年，贝康侯在狮林寺巷购屋近百间重设贝家祠堂，并捐田五百亩创办“留余义庄”，以租米周济贫困的男女族人。

义庄规定，每位无以自存的族人每月都可来领取二十多斤的大米以维持生计。义庄还举办义塾，免费供族内子弟求学，如果考取秀才，还有四千文钱的奖励。

原来贝润生一直牢记当年贝康侯设立的留余义庄对自己的恩惠，于是三十年代将自己在苏州的田产全部捐出成立“承训义庄”，继留余义庄以后更加热诚地为贝氏族人服务。正是这一决定，让贝家在土改时期被定性为可以合作合营的“民族资本家”，而不是作为阶级敌人、清算对象的“工商大地主”。

1917年，贝聿铭出生。同年，贝润生花了9900银元购置下早已荒废的狮子林，又花了八十万银元买下周围一千多亩地的民房宅基并打通狮子林进行整修，园林壮丽，气象奢华。

贝润生没有把狮子林变成他的私家园林，而是全族共用，作为承训义庄的办事处，也是家族祠堂和家族学校的所在地。

都说童年接受的熏陶会影响终生。贝聿铭童年在狮子林度过了一段美好又难忘的时光。狮子林的曲径通幽、禅宗寓意，也深深影响了贝聿铭，启迪了他对于建筑最初的审美和灵感，产生了美学的萌芽。

成名后，他曾赞叹苏州园林的迂回曲折之美，认为其在有限空间内给人无限遐想，并称这成为他个人创造力的启蒙。

“创意是人类的巧手和自然的共同结晶，这是我从苏州园林中学到的”。后来功成名就的贝聿铭如是说。

命运就是这样神奇。贝聿铭祖先的善举帮助了族人贝润生，贝润生购入的狮子林又启迪了贝聿铭的建筑灵感。这个家族靠着“乐善好施”这个家训，实现了互相成就。

贝润生与贝聿铭的祖父贝理泰还共同捐资，在苏州城开办了中国第一个新式幼稚园，十三世贝理泰，1922年起连任苏州总商会会长7年，先后发起募捐巨款开辟了从阊门到虎丘的马路，时称"新马路"，担任过吴县救火会会长，博习医院、振华女子中学董事等。

解放前夕，孔祥熙一人就卷走了一亿三千万美元，而贝聿铭的父亲、时任中银总裁的贝祖诒远走美国之时却没拿走一分公款。

乐善好施、诚信正直，这些优秀的品质，都是这个家族能够十几代财富传承不断的原因。

贝聿铭晚年设计的苏州博物馆落成故里，命运就是这样的奇妙。

显然的好处 vs. 隐含的代价

茨威格说：“命运的馈赠，都在暗中标好了价格。”

世人慌慌张张，不过图碎银几两；偏偏这碎银几两，能解万种慌张，保家中老人健康，儿女入得学堂。

我们经常会追寻那显然的价值，而看不到隐含的代价。比如多得了那五斗米，却放弃了气节；少付了一些工资，却损失了雇主品牌；享受了游艇豪宅，却脱离了劳动人民。

钱当然是好东西，但是在追求财富的路上，我们是否看到了隐含的代价呢？

我们是获得了财富，还是被资本所奴役了？

我们是取得了世俗的成功，还是磨灭了智慧之光，沦为一腔驴血、满脸大包的中年油腻老板？

三岁孙女的对话

播客的最后，Jim讲起他旁听自己儿子和三岁小孙女的一段对话：

“Kate，你觉得人死了之后会去到哪里呢？”

“爸爸，我觉得火柴一旦烧尽了，就再也点不着了呀！”

那一刻，Jim被击中了：大道至简，从天真烂漫的小孙女嘴里说出来。是啊，人生苦短，哪有什么往生呢？不过是及时行乐、广结善缘而已罢！

特别声明：以上文章内容仅代表作者本人观点，不代表ESG跨境电商观点或立场。如有关于作品内容、版权或其它问题请于作品发表后的30日内与ESG跨境电商联系。